215A Timee
- May 1, 2025
- 1 min read
Updated: May 2, 2025
Timee provides short-term, one-off gig work services. Offers immediate wage payments. Focuses on logistics, food service, and retail, with expanding domains.
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Always good stuff from Teddy👇
"Many focus on Timee 215A's (1) defensible moat x high gross margin and (2) secular tailwinds, but are ignoring cash flow dynamics. Look at 'advances' growing more than cash. This is because Timee pays workers upfront, and collects from clients later -- effectively a 'BNPL of short-term labor'.
1. Q3 was likely last clean margin print. Timee needs to ramp investments to penetrate larger logistics clients and expand into new verticals. I.e. larger GMV = larger advances, but margins down due to investments to ramp growth again.
2. The 'easy wins' in AA per GMV growth likely peaked. Now need to dig deeper into BPO-like work for logistics + F&B. Price-setting power is slightly shifting…
very good rundown on why Mercari could not even come close to catching up with Timee on their competing service
"According to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, the number of people who found employment through Mercari Halo in fiscal year 2024 was around 940,000. The number of people who found employment through Timee was over 18 million"
In short, sheer difference in platform power
full article: https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUC1487Z0U5A011C2000000/
https://x.com/InvestInJapan/status/1978001872524099672
https://x.com/ReneSellmann/status/1975929412378865740?t=3lGlzh7Z05s4qN9iNv2gWA&s=19
On September 29 - SBI Securities lowers its target share price for Timee from ¥2,450 to ¥1,800, revising down its fair PER multiple to 20x
Timee corporate clients' cost-cutting efforts will continue, particularly in the food and beverage and retail industries, and it is unlikely that sales growth will accelerate again in the fourth quarter (August to October of 2025)
SBI believes that growth will begin to recover from November 2025 to January 2026 as the effects of management measures become apparent. SBI lowered its operating profit forecast for Timee for the fiscal year ending October 2027 from ¥13.4 billion to ¥12.4 billion.